South Korean dealers expect another rate cut

SEOUL: Most bond dealers in South Korea expect the central bank to cut its key interest rate again tomorrow, as the global financial crisis inflicts more pain on the domestic economy, a survey showed.
The Korea Securities Dealers Association said 81.3% of those surveyed predicted the Bank of Korea would cut its base rate this week, the fifth cut in three months, amid signs of easing inflation pressures and a looming economic recession.
The remaining respondents predicted no rate change in January, believing the central bank would opt for a pause after slashing the rates by 225 basis points since October, including a record and unexpected cut of one full percentage point in December.
The result was largely in line with Reuters’ recent poll where eight of 10 analysts projected a half percentage point cut while the remaining two economists forecast a 25-basis point cut. Last month, 89.9% of the bond dealers in a similar industry survey had predicted a rate cut.
The association, whose yield quotations are used as official records for South Korea’s debt market, surveyed 143 people from 110 financial institutions, including 19 foreign houses.
The Bank of Korea holds its monthly rate review on Friday

will it?? Oil to top $100 by end-2010

Will that oil prices would rise above US$100 a barrel by the end of 2010 as the global economy recovers??
Texas billionaire T. Boone Pickens said on Tuesday that oil prices would rise above US$100 a barrel by end-2010 is possible.
Oil prices in the US$40 a barrel range are “not going to be around much longer,” Pickens told a gathering at the James A Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University in Houston.
Oil prices have tumbled from over US$147 a barrel in July to about US$48 a barrel on Tuesday as demand in the United States and other developed countries slows due to the global economic crisis.
By late 2010, Pickens sees a rebound in oil demand sparked by a global recovery, pushing prices higher. If the US continues to rely on imported oil for 70% or more of its supply, prices could reach US$200 to US$300 per barrel in another decade, Pickens said.
As an investor, Pickens said he remained “on the sidelines,” with just 10% of his BP Capital hedge fund invested in energy. The fund lost US$2bil last year before shifting to cash as energy prices and stocks declined.
The recent drop in oil and natural gas prices has not derailed Pickens’ effort to push the next administration to implement an energy plan to reduce US dependence on foreign oil.
Pickens said he hoped President-elect Barack Obama would announce details of his energy plan within the first 100 days of the new administration.
To replace one-third of the country’s imported supply, Pickens has outlined a plan to use domestic natural gas as a transport fuel and to invest in power generation from renewable resources such as wind and solar power.
While the cost to transform the nation’s transport and electric infrastructure is enormous, Pickens said reducing the annual tab for imported oil “can pay for anything you are doing.”
Government leadership is imperative, Pickens said. “Waiting for the free market can be disastrous,” he told reporters.
Lack of financing has slowed Pickens’ ambitious plan to build the world’s largest wind farm of 4,000 megawatts (MW) in the Texas Panhandle. Instead of building his own high-voltage transmission line to move electricity from the first 1,000MW of wind turbines to supply more populated areas of north Texas.
Pickens said he would wait for a power line to be built by other investors through the state’s Competitive Renewable Electric Zone process, expected to take three to four years.

money management in the long run

money management will make us money in the long run, but now we’d like to show you the other side of things. What would happen if you didn’t use money management rules?
Consider this example:
Let’s say you have a $100,000 and you lose $50,000. What percentage of your account have you lost? The answer is 50%. Simple enough. Now, what percentage of that $50,000 do you have to make in order to get back to your original $100,000? It’s not 50%--you’d have to make back 100% of your $50,000 to get back to your original $100,000. This is called drawdown. For this example, we would’ve had a 50% drawdown.
The point of that little illustration is that it is very easy to lose money and a lot harder to make it back. We know you’re saying to yourself, “I’m not going to lose 50% of my account in one trade.” Well we would certainly hope not!
However, what if you lost 3, 4, or even 10 trades in a row? That couldn’t possibly happen to you, right? (Sarcasm used) You have a trading system that wins 70% of the time, so there is NO way you could lose 10 trades in a row. (Even more sarcasm used)
Well, while you may have a good system, consider this example:
In trading, we are always looking for an edge. That is the whole reason why traders develop systems. A trading system that is 70% profitable sounds like a very good edge to have. But just because your trading system is 70% profitable, does that mean for every 100 trades you make, you will win 7 out of every 10?
Not necessarily! How do you know which 70 out of those 100 trades will be winners?
The answer is that you don’t. You could lose the first 30 trades in a row and win the remaining 70. That would still give you a 70% profitable system, but you have to ask yourself, “Would you still be in the game if you lost 30 trades in a row?”
This is why money management is so important. No matter what system you use, you will eventually have a losing streak. Even professional poker players who make their living through poker go through horrible losing streaks, and yet they still end up profitable.

The reason is that the good poker players practice money management because they know that they will not win every tournament they play. Instead, they only risk a small percentage of their total bankroll so that they can survive those losing streaks.
This is what you must do as a trader. Only risk a small percentage of your “trading bankroll” so that you can survive your losing streaks. Remember that if you practice strict money management rules, you will become the casino and in the long run, “you will always win.”

$$ management

Why is it important? Well, we are in the business of making money, and in order to make money we have to learn how to manage it. Ironically, this is one of the most overlooked areas in trading. Many traders are just anxious to get right into trading with no regards to their total account size. They simply determine how much they can stomach to lose in a single trade and hit the “trade” button. There’s a term for this type of investing….it’s called GAMBLING!
When you trade without money management rules, you are in fact gambling. You are not looking at the long term return on your investment. Instead you are only looking for that “jackpot”. Money management rules will not only protect us, but they will make us very profitable in the long run. If you don’t believe me, and you think that “gambling” is the way to get rich, then consider this example:
People go to Las Vegas all the time to gamble their money in hopes to win a big jackpot, and in fact, many people do win. So how in the world, are casino’s still making money if many individuals are winning jackpots? The answer is that while even though people win jackpots, in the long run, casino’s are still profitable because they rake in more money from the people that don’t win. That is where the term “the house always wins” comes from.
The truth is that casinos are just very rich statisticians. They know that in the long run, they will be the ones making the money—not the gamblers. Even if Joe Schmoe wins $100,000 jackpot in a slot machine, the casinos know that there will be 100 more gamblers who WON’T win that jackpot and the money will go right back in their pockets.
This is a classic example of how statisticians make money over gamblers. Even though both lose money, the statistician, or casino in this case, knows how to control their losses. Essentially, this is how money management works.If you learn how to control your losses, you will have a chance at being profitable.
You want to be the rich statistician…NOT the gambler because in the long run, you want to “always be the winner.”

the IMPORTANT thing... ...time...

Have you ever told yourself there’s never enough time in the day? I think we’ve all thought that to ourselves at one point, but if you’re not willing to shift your priorities to make time for trading, then forget about becoming a trader.
Sorry to put it so bluntly, but contrary to popular belief, trading is not a hobby.
Trading is not a hobby.
Trading is not a hobby unless you want to lose money.
Golf is my hobby. I pay to play golf. Golf is Tiger Wood’s business. Tiger Woods is paid to play golf.
See the difference?
Trading is a business
You have to devote yourself to trading just like you would with any other business in order to be successful.
So, it’s time (pun intended) to ask yourself this: “Can I balance my time and change my lifestyle to make room for trading?”
I’d better hear a resounding “YES!”
But before you can even truly answer that question, you need to first figure out what your daily priorities are and determine whether or not you can make trading THE number one priority.
A good way to find this out for yourself is to list your daily activities, and then prioritize them. If your daily priorities take up all of your time, then forget about trading.
So, take a moment to figure out what is going on in your life because it’s very important to balance your time and priorities, not just to become a successful trader, but also to live a content, meaningful life. We all want to be wildly profitable, and initially we may drop everything else to get there, but in the end an unbalanced life will lead to personal and/or professional failure.